My name is Kateryna Shtepa, and I am a student at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. My academic focus lies in U.S.-UK relations and the history of American economic policy. Over the course of my studies, I have also developed a strong interest in the political cultures and propaganda strategies of Eastern European states, alongside a solid understanding of the region’s political history.
In 2022, I led the events department at IAPSS Ukraine and collaborated closely with IAPSS Europe. The following year, I interned with the Department of Public Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Since then, I have worked with Ukrainian and European think tanks.
I’m a member of Ukrainian Association of Foreign Policy and this year I’ve joined the team at BIGA as an analyst specialising in Eastern Europe to share the important developments in what I find to be an important part of the world
This time, I’m diving into some big stories shaping the region: UK officials meeting to negotiate peace in Ukraine, Russia being officially labeled as a top-tier threat, and growing British support for opposition forces in Belarus, defence support to Poland, nuclear cooperation with Hungary, and so on.
Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. On March 11, the Trump administration, having taken the initiative to seek an end to the war, proposed a 30-day ceasefire following negotiations with a Russian delegation. This proposal entailed a full cessation of hostilities along the entire front line, in the Black Sea, and across Ukrainian cities. While the United States still hopes for a constructive dialogue with Moscow, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly stated as early as March 4 that Russia was violating the very ceasefire terms it had proposed. Although Washington once wielded significant influence over global diplomacy, the current international framework appears to be unraveling. Agreements reached earlier, notably in Saudi Arabia, have failed to translate into tangible outcomes and remain, at best, aspirational.
While the U.S. is focused on short-term ceasefire efforts, the United Kingdom and its European partners have shifted the conversation toward long-term peace solutions. On April 4, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Kyiv to present elements of a potential peace plan. The UK expressed readiness to deploy a military contingent on Ukrainian territory as a security guarantee. However, such proposals must be discussed directly with both warring sides to avoid escalating the already fragile international situation. Russia maintains a strongly negative stance toward any potential deployment of NATO troops near its borders. During Starmer’s visit to Kyiv, Russian forces launched a strike on Kryvyi Rih, which, according to Russian officials, targeted and eliminated Western military instructors. This raises serious concerns that any British military presence in Ukraine could draw the UK directly into the conflict. Therefore, any deployment must be preceded by clear agreements and firm guarantees to prevent those forces from becoming direct targets. Specific terms and conditions regarding the presence of foreign troops must be detailed in any eventual peace agreement.
As for the April 4 attack, missile fragments landed on a children’s playground in Kryvyi Rih. Eighteen people were killed, including nine children, and over 70 others were injured. Later, on the night of April 6, Russia launched a large-scale assault across Ukraine, firing 23 missiles of various types and 109 attack drones, most of which were directed toward Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
In practical terms, Trump’s ceasefire initiative has failed. Rather than building trust, it has cast further doubt on the Republican approach to the conflict. Europe, therefore, should consider leading peace negotiations independently, guided by its strategic interests.
Belarus
The United Kingdom has become an active supporter of democratic forces in Belarus, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. On March 21, London hosted the first-ever strategic consultations between the UK government and representatives of the Belarusian democratic opposition. This initiative was accompanied by the formation of an all-party parliamentary group, “For Freedom and Democracy in Belarus,” which brought together 24 members of Parliament. The UK has committed to supporting and financing democratic initiatives, aiding human rights organizations, and opposing autocratic regimes in the region. For decades, Belarus has operated under Moscow’s influence, but London now seeks to expand its presence in Eastern Europe by backing opposition and pro-democracy movements.
In September 2024, the UK articulated its position on Belarus during the 57th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. The UK delegation expressed deep concern over the brutal and systematic human rights violations in Belarus and condemned the ongoing arbitrary arrests and large-scale repression. They called on the Belarusian regime in Minsk to release all political prisoners. To reinforce its words with action, the UK government announced £2.5 million in financial support for Belarusian human rights defenders and civil society organizations.
Poland
Poland and the United Kingdom are long-standing partners, with several mutual agreements and joint projects. Following Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, the issue of defense has become increasingly critical, particularly as missiles began violating Polish airspace, posing a direct threat to NATO countries. Due to its geographical location and proximity to the war-torn country, Poland allocates a larger portion of its GDP to defense than any other NATO member, including the United States. Last year, Poland’s defense spending reached 4.1% of its GDP, according to NATO estimates, and it is projected to rise to 4.7% by 2025.
On January 16, 2025, a new agreement was signed, covering defense and security matters. The key objectives of the agreement are the protection of Poland, investment, and energy supply. Notably, cooperation between London and Warsaw has been announced in areas such as military production, including the MIECZNIK AH140 frigate program and the NAREW ground-based air defense program. One might speculate that the catalyst for these active steps was the United States’ unstable policy towards Europe. European partners continue to invest in the security of Eastern European countries to prevent Russia from encroaching on NATO members.
Estonia
The Royal Monarchy continues to work for the benefit of the country, and on March 21, Prince William made a historic visit to Estonia. For the first time in history, the Prince of Wales visited Estonia, meeting NATO forces and participating in military field exercises. British troops are stationed in a camp as part of NATO’s defense against Russia. Kensington Palace stated that Prince William’s visit was aimed at highlighting Estonia’s efforts to support Ukraine. This gesture was highly appreciated not only by the Estonian authorities but also by Ukraine, which recognized the support and the honor of standing side by side with the United Kingdom.
Russian Federation
Since 2022, diplomatic relations between the countries have been at a low point due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. London has actively supported Ukraine and condemned Russia’s actions in the war. On April 1, 2025, the UK announced that it would place anyone working for the Russian state under the highest level of its forthcoming Foreign Influence Registration Scheme. Security Minister Dan Jarvis stated that Russia poses a severe threat to the national security of the United Kingdom. Even during the existence of the Soviet Union, Moscow boasted an extensive network of agents abroad.
The intention to classify the Russian Federation under the highest level of the new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS) means that any activities conducted within the UK, either directly or indirectly in the interests of the Russian state, will need to be officially declared. Failure to do so may result in criminal liability. This decision is part of a broader government strategy to counter hybrid threats, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and covert political interference. The selection of Russia as the first country to be listed under this “high level” category reflects its pervasive presence in British security investigations.
Hungary
In January 2025, the United Kingdom and Hungary launched a new cooperation framework in the field of nuclear energy, focusing on the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). This area became the subject of discussions between the foreign ministers of the two countries in London. The Hungarian side expressed a clear interest in British SMR technologies, particularly the developments of Rolls-Royce, one of the leading players in the European compact nuclear energy market. This move should not only be seen as a technical and energy initiative but also as a political signal: Budapest seeks to expand the scope of its international partnerships in a strategic sector that was previously largely controlled by Russia through the “Paks II” project.
Despite Hungary’s active cooperation with Rosatom, its interest in SMRs from a Western supplier indicates a desire to balance dependency and introduce more flexible, decentralized models of nuclear generation. For London, this collaboration strengthens its position as an exporter of nuclear technologies and paves the way for broader energy partnerships with Central European countries.