I am Aamnah Fatima Khan, a recent graduate in Defense and Diplomatic Studies from Fatima Jinnah Women University. Currently, I work with the Human Rights Research Center (HRRC), focusing on critical issues of human rights violations. My research interests include strategic stability, geopolitics, arms control, non-proliferation, human rights, and counter-terrorism. I’ll be contributing insights on the Asian region, with a particular emphasis on South Asia.
Given the historical ties between the UK and South Asia, stemming from colonial rule, and their ongoing relationship within the Commonwealth, the region holds significant strategic importance for the UK. Understanding South Asia’s complexities is crucial for the UK to navigate its diplomatic, economic, and security interests in the region.
UK-India Free Trade Deal
The UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a historic agreement that offers substantial economic benefits for both nations. After 14 rounds of discussions over three years, the deal is expected to enhance bilateral trade by £25.5 billion per year and raise the UK’s GDP by £4.8 billion.
For the UK, the deal provides unparalleled access to India’s vast and growing market. With India’s economy set to become the world’s third-largest by 2028, British firms may use this opportunity to broaden their reach and influence. The agreement reduces tariffs on a variety of UK exports, including Scotch whiskey, gin, lamb, and medical gadgets. Tariffs on whisky and gin will be cut from 150% to 75% initially, then to 40% within 10 years.
The FTA also provides UK-based businesses with guaranteed access to about 40,000 bids valued at least £38 billion yearly. This move will provide huge potential for UK firms in industries such as transportation, healthcare, and green energy. Furthermore, the agreement encourages closer collaboration on innovation, including innovative technology in agriculture, health, and renewable energy.
For India, the deal provides an opportunity to showcase its willingness to negotiate ambitious trade agreements, potentially paving the way for similar deals with other countries, including the EU. The deal also supports India’s strategy of becoming a “China-plus-one” manufacturing powerhouse, attracting companies eager to diversify their supply chains.
The FTA will additionally benefit Indian consumers, who will receive access to a broader range of UK goods and services. Clothing producers and jewellers will gain from increased access to the UK market, boosting their profit margins. Furthermore, the deal allows for easier mobility of skilled workers between the two nations, including a three-year exemption from social security contributions for Indian employees working in the UK.
The UK’s Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds emphasized that the deal would make it easier for people with certain skills to work in the UK temporarily, including chefs, musicians, and yoga teachers. The deal also contains a commitment to recognize professional qualifications, which will facilitate the interchange of qualified professionals between the two countries.
The UK-India free trade agreement has been hailed as an important achievement for the British government, delivering on a key promise made by Brexit supporters to obtain worldwide trade agreements. Previously, successful agreements were reached with Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The agreement includes a remarkable clause that exempts Indian and British workers from social security contributions for three years. This plan, however, has generated sharp criticism from Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who claim that the Labour administration is jeopardizing Britain’s interests by establishing a discriminatory tax system. Labour has been accused of eroding British workers’ financial security by exempting select workers from social security contributions, which are generally shared by employees and employers, particularly given the recent increase in employer National Insurance contributions.
The UK-India FTA highlights the possibility of mutually beneficial trade agreements between countries with complementary economies. When the agreement goes into effect, it is intended to boost economic development, generate employment, and expand trade between the two countries. With India on track to become an economic giant, this agreement allows the UK to capitalise on new possibilities and expand commercial links in the Indo-Pacific region.
The deal’s impact on the UK economy may be modest in percentage terms, but the sheer size of India’s market and increasing middle class make it an appealing option for UK businesses. As the UK navigates its post-Brexit trade environment, agreements like this FTA will be critical in boosting economic development and cementing the country’s status as a global trading power.
India-Pakistan Tensions
The latest escalation between India and Pakistan stems from a militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which claimed the innocent lives of 26 people. India accused Pakistan of aiding the attackers and launched missile strikes against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated by shooting down Indian fighter aircraft, asserting that the Indian strikes resulted in the deaths of 31 Pakistani civilians. Both sides have reported civilian fatalities and military actions, raising significant concerns about an escalating confrontation between these two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The UK government voiced serious concern about the situation between India and Pakistan, particularly in light of the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 people, the majority of whom were Hindu tourists. Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged both nations to exhibit restraint and hold direct diplomatic discussions to avoid further escalation. The UK maintained a neutral stance, emphasizing the need to avoid acts that may escalate the crisis, as “nobody wins” in such situations. UK authorities, including the Prime Minister, have repeatedly advocated for de-escalation and emphasized civilian protection. In a recent development, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the UK continued to engage in negotiations with both sides for several days, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy constantly communicating with both countries. After the ceasefire was announced, PM Starmer welcomed it and emphasized the need to ensure its durability, stating, “I’m pleased to see today that there’s a ceasefire. The task now is to make sure that that is enduring and is lasting”. This diplomatic effort aims to stabilize the region and prevent further violence.
However, controversy flared when UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds suggested that the UK should not be “squeamish” about supplying weaponry to India, despite the ongoing conflict. MPs and rights groups reacted strongly, arguing that such views are ethically inconsistent and risk undermining the UK’s diplomatic credibility. They emphasized that selling armaments to a party engaged in active warfare might jeopardize the UK’s neutrality and exacerbate regional instability.
This conflict has direct ramifications for the UK. It could strain the UK’s diplomatic relations with either India or Pakistan, which are key trade and strategic partners. With large Indian and Pakistani diaspora communities in Britain, domestic tensions could also rise, affecting social cohesion and public safety. Furthermore, Britain’s status as a responsible arms exporter may come under scrutiny.