How Mainstream European Parties Can Reduce the Rise in Right-wing Populism
Editor’s Note: This piece was written by Sam Thurman. Sam graduated with a First-class degree from the University of York in PPE and now works as an analyst with Thim Ventures. Be sure to follow his work, here.
The Argument
From Germany to Greece, the whole of Europe has seen populist parties either win elections, or gain significant vote share. Here in Britain, populist rhetoric was seen throughout the Brexit campaign, and more recently with the return of the Reform UK party. This rise in populism has been extensively analyzed by political scientists, with various factors, economics in particular, identified as causes. My research focussed on one of those causes in particular – the cultural backlash – and what to do about it.
Far from the current response of mainstream parties across Europe, which seems to be to either label populist voters as either stupid or immoral (racist, misogynistic, etc.), such parties should treat the grievances of populist voters seriously, and try to incorporate some of their concerns. This way mainstream parties can alleviate the worst consequences of the rise of populism and bide their time whilst the European economy improves. For, if the rise of populism cannot be tackled and populists gain power, the consequences are severe. From disastrous economic policy to the collapse of democratic institutions, populists in power are dangerous, and this policy recommendation hopes to provide a short term solution to the rise in populism.
The Background
I undertook three key steps before and during my dissertation to produce it: investigating the causes of populism, exploring the cultural backlash, and researching the viability of the proposed solution.
The journey began with my application to the Laidlaw Scholarship, a summer-long research program available only to first-year students during their first term. Fortunately, My proposal, to research the causes of Brexit and identify lessons for mainstream parties, was successful. As a first-year PPE student with limited knowledge of political concepts like populism, this initial summer of research was my introduction to the rise of populism and its primary causes, which can broadly be categorized into economic and non-economic factors. Equipped with a summer’s worth of research, a concise paper summarizing my findings, and a solid understanding of populism, I moved on to the second stage of my project.
Following my first summer of research, the scholarship intended to provide students with a volunteering program in their second summer to develop leadership skills. Unfortunately, the pandemic disrupted these plans, and many of us had to undertake a second summer of research instead. This shift prompted me to delve deeper into one specific cause of populism: the cultural backlash. In essence, the cultural backlash theory posits that many populist voters feel culturally alienated or underrepresented by mainstream parties and thus turn to populist alternatives. I found this aspect of populism particularly intriguing, partly because it reflected the ostensible concerns of many populist voters I had encountered firsthand, and also because it features prominently in populist rhetoric, perhaps due to its emotive nature.
Struck by the slowness of economic responses to populism, and the need for a solution quickly, I focused on the cultural backlash. I hypothesized that a short term solution for mainstream parties might be able to address cultural backlash to attract voters away from populist parties, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of populists in power. In my final year at university, I set out to investigate whether this strategy could indeed be effective.
The Research
My research aimed to show that populism could be reduced in the short term by addressing the cultural backlash, and suggest some ways in which that could be done. As a PPE student, my dissertation also needed to include an element of multidisciplinarity. Therefore, a significant element of my research was to confirm the large economic drivers behind populism. To formulate the numerical model supporting my thesis, I started with this basic model for the demand for populism, informed by my review of the surrounding literature:
Demand for Populism = Economic Anxiety + Cultural Backlash + Other factors
Thus, with this basic model set up, I began to look for empirical evidence to confirm or deny whether cultural policies could help decrease populism in the short term. To do this, I decided to use a regression analysis to reveal the statistically significant factors in the overall populist vote share for a given election. The final model to be tested is shown below, with some simplification for the purposes of this summary. The full version of the model can be found here.
PopVote = Unemployment Rate + GDP per Capita (yearly % change) + Inflation Rate + GFC + Culture1 + Culture3 + Culture4 + Culture5
PopVote is the cumulative election vote share from the populist parties in a given election. For example, if in the 2011 Lativian election 4 populist parties each gained 10% of the overall vote share, the corresponding PopVote figure would be 40% (0.4). With the exception of GFC, the economic variables are simple figures for well known economic concepts, with data provided by the World Bank. The final economic variable, GFC, is more complex for those unfamiliar with regression analysis. It is a dummy variable, taking a value of 1 if the election was held after the 1st of January 2008. The cultural policies are not so straightforward. These variables represent the policy positions of the incumbent party. Each variable represents the estimated percentage of the incumbent party’s manifesto devoted to; the need for state funding for cultural and leisure activities (Culture1), positive references to the nation and its history (Culture3), positive references to traditional or religious morality (Culture4) and appeals for national solidarity (Culture5). Importantly, as these are the policies of the incumbent party, these variables will be used to test the hypothesis of a short term solution to populism through the cultural backlash.
PopVote = 1.20 − 0.71Culture3 + 6.01GFC + Fixed Effects
The simplified results of the regression analysis are shown above. The important parts of the result of this regression analysis are the negative effect of the variable Culture3 and the large, positive effect of GFC. This indicates that populist parties receive a huge boost to their overall vote share following the global financial crisis of 2007/08. As noted by many academics, economic anxiety seems to have increased alongside the rise in populism, suggesting a link between the two. Secondly, and most importantly, the negative value of -0.71 indicates that the cumulative vote for populists in an election will decrease by 0.71%, for a 1% increase in the amount of an incumbent’s manifesto that positively references the nation and its history. In other words, if mainstream political parties increase their positive references to their country’s culture, they can cheaply, and quickly, reduce the vote of the populist whilst their economy improves.
The Takeaway
Overall, my research suggests there may be a way to reduce the rise of populism across Europe in the short term as economic anxiety decreases. An analysis of party manifestos from 29 European countries between 1998 and 2021 indicates that a 1% increase in positive references to the nation and its history by incumbent or mainstream parties can reduce the populist vote share by just over 0.7%. While this may seem small, if a mainstream party dedicates one-fifth of its manifesto to cultural projects that promote the nation and its history, the populist vote share could decrease by 14%.
Today, European populism is particularly strong. Recent European Parliament elections have seen a shift to the right, with parties like National Rally in France and AfD in Germany gaining traction. Instead of attributing their success to the ignorance or immorality of their voters, mainstream parties should address the underlying cultural backlash. By doing so, they can effectively counter the threat of populism – before it is too late.